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Present in Quebec, Alberta and Ontario.

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Present in Quebec, Alberta and Ontario.

Big Swings, a Home Run or Not?

Basic
Accessible notions and key points to remember

Maoki

Mortgage brokerage firm

Perspectives Bond Market
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The bond market is one of the most complex in the financial world. It encompasses government debt, corporate borrowing, and forms the foundation of most long-term mortgage financing. In Canada, government bonds (GOC / CMB) play a central role, as they directly influence the structure of mortgage rates.

For many years, this market evolved in a relatively stable manner, adjusting gradually to economic cycles and U.S. fiscal policies. However, since the first term of Donald J. Trump, bond yields have experienced sharper fluctuations, showing increased and sometimes unpredictable volatility. Yield charts now resemble an electrocardiogram more than a smooth curve.

This volatility largely stems from a climate of uncertainty marked by a constant flow of news, political statements, and conflicting signals. While this noise initially unsettled investors, recent months have seen a return to a more fact-based approach. Markets now appear to be waiting for concrete announcements before making significant adjustments to bond yields.

Several observers anticipate that 2026 could be marked by a few pronounced movements, with bond yields shifting abruptly, both upward and downward, over short periods of time. In such an environment, positioning across an entire portfolio becomes more important than ever.

For investors and real estate borrowers, the best protection against the unknown remains thoughtful debt structuring: a well-distributed maturity schedule, a holistic view of the portfolio, and a focus on balance rather than isolated optimization of a single transaction.

Understanding the bond market is no small task. Through this series of editorials, the Maoki team aims to provide clear reference points to help you better grasp the dynamics at play. Our goal is to help you make informed decisions and feel confident about the composition of your real estate portfolio and the debt associated with it.

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